Football News Blog » Getting an idea of how a match plays out

Getting an idea of how a match plays out

It isn’t difficult to look at some football matches and see how goals may be at a premium or how certain games may end up as goal fests. The attacking potential of both teams when taking into account the players, the tactics and the past history can be indicative when betting on football. If you want to bet on football in running then it pays you to know how prices react to certain events and also in how they are priced up based on certain criteria. For example, in the Premier League, the number of goals per game averages out to about 2.7 per match. Now obviously these are long term averages that may not apply from game to game but take for instance a match between Aston Villa and Everton. Let us say that the goals expectation in this game is 2.5. Now obviously there cannot be exactly 2.5 goals in any game of football but if you had 25 goals spaced over 10 games then 2.5 is the average. But a match with a total goals expectation of 2.5 has a certain effect on the timing of the goals. The first goal in such a game tends to be scored in or around the 36th minute. Effectively then this figure gives you 35 minutes of flexible leeway to be able to bet. You could perhaps have a strategy of backing the draw at the outset and then laying it back at around the 30th minute mark. But in running betting in football does lend itself to watching live football. I know a professional football bettor who makes a living by analysing how certain games could be played out and bases his strategy around that. He bases his entire method of operation around the draw. I also am aware of certain sports bettors who use the draw in cricket as a base for their entire betting strategy in much the same way. As an example of how he works, let us take the Celtic vs Arsenal Champions League qualifying tie coming up. In a two legged tie like this where away goals count, then a result like 0-0 in the first leg is not a bad result for either side. But yet at the start of the match, both teams cannot play for this result as it just isn’t possible with ninety minutes to go. But change that to fifteen minutes to go and suddenly it is a different story. Now it is in the power of both teams to “manufacture” a 0-0 score line. Celtic don’t want to concede an away goal at any cost and Arsenal may be happy with a 0-0 first leg score away from home. This may be likewise if the score was 2-1 to Celtic. They have the win and something to take back to the Emirates and Arsenal have the away goal and something to be pleased about. Arsenal don’t want to lose 3-1 and Celtic don’t want to draw 2-2 as a goal in either case would massively influence the outcome of the entire tie. If you are observant enough then you can sit and watch football matches and it can be actually noticeable that both teams have stopped playing. Also a very physical and energetic game can end up like this as well. Both teams have expended so much energy that they almost punch themselves out and the final twenty minutes seems to be no more than a case of playing out time. An alert punter with access to in play betting who is watching events unfold live is in the ideal spot to be able to profit from these situations. This article was produced by Carl “The Dean” Sampson

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